Greece’s exit would be tough but it would not break down the Eurozone. Greece is under considerable amount of debt and has defaulted. The European authorities are not willing to the support the country. Greece is no longer going to use Euro as its currency.
The level of tension in global market is increasing. The investors need to swiftly assess whether the situation is going to settle or not. Europe is in a much better condition now but there never has been an incident of a country leaving the Eurozone.
There’s a lot of friction between Greece and its creditors. Greece’s prime minister stated that the creditors want to disgrace the people of the country. It seems unlikely that any settlement will be made among Greece and its creditors by the end of the month when the debt will be due.
Many European people are of the view that a deal might be signed at eleventh hour and it would save Greece from defaulting. Policy makers and financial organizations are trying to analyse the negative impacts if Greece was to exit the Eurozone. There will definitely be an initial shock, where people will try to buy less risky securities like government bonds. The prices of US treasuries might become high as people seek safety in them.
But there is an optimistic belief that after the initial shock things might settle down. Because things have changed a lot over the past three years. Currently, the private banks and investors do not hold huge amount of Greek debt securities. The European banks are also much stable now. They can keep on lending money even after Greek’s default.
The Central Bank of Europe has also started a program to encourage large bond-buying. The president of Central Bank, Mario Draghi said that it was ready to put a step forward if declining bond prices were an issue.
There also another concern which some analysts put forward. If Greece did fall out of the Eurozone how would it affect the future of Europe? It might indicate that euro is meant to be for specific countries only. It will raise the apprehensions regarding other countries that whether they are strong enough to stay in the currency zone or not. If such condition arose European Central Bank would surely step up to correct the situation. But even then, the economic strain would destroy economic development taking place in Europe’s indebted countries. It would most probably affect Portugal and Italy in the years to come.